一 |
二 | The August 15, 2021 fall of Kabul shocked the world, signaling the collapse of the West’s 20-year-long, multi-trillion-dollar nation-building experiment in Afghanistan in a single day.,Less than two weeks before the cataclysm, US and Afghan officials issued statement after statement expressing confidence in the Afghan military’s ability to fight on without American support on the ground.,“[The Afghan Army has] got greater numbers, they’ve got an air force, and, oh by the way, their air force is also flying…This is not an incompetent air force – they know how to fight from the air and they are. They have modern weaponry. They have military organizational ability as well as 20 years of training in the field by – not just the United States but our NATO and Allied partners. So they have a lot of advantages. It’s really just now about using those advantages,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters in Washington on August 11, less than 100 hours before Kabul’s collapse.,In the chaotic few days that followed, Afghan Air Force personnel wound up flying nearly 50 helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft out of the country to neighboring Uzbekistan.,What happened? How did the US and NATO’s orderly withdrawal – which began in May 2021 amid fears that the Taliban would attack Western forces if they didn’t stick to the terms of the 2020 Trump-Taliban Doha peace deal, turn into such a humiliating and disorganized rout?,Paper Tiger vs Shoeless Army,On paper, the Afghan government and army seemed prepared for a years-long slog, similar to the one put up by the Soviet-backed Democratic Republic of Afghanistan, which managed to hold out against the Mujahedeen independently between 1989 and early 1992, even as the jihadists received billions in arms and cash from the CIA, Saudi and Egyptian intelligence, Pakistan and China. By comparison, the NATO-backed Afghan Army had serious problems with foreign support for the Taliban, with the insurgent group’s only major foreign backer consisting of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence.,The Afghan military boasted a total size of some 300,000 personnel – the 16th largest army in the world, along with an impressive array of $85 billion in US-gifted weaponry, including tens of millions of guns, grenades and rocket launchers, 8,500 Humvees, hundreds of armored personnel carriers, infantry fighting vehicles, tanks, mine-resistant ambush protected vehicles, and thousands of heavy and light trucks.,The Air Force’s inventory included more than two hundred Russian and US-made attack and utility helicopters, dozens of transport planes, and close to 30 Cessna 208 and A-29 Super Tucano ground attack and COIN jets.,US 'Lost Track' of Afghan War Aims, Says Retired Marine General12 August, 17:00 GMT,Facing off against them were the Taliban: a rag-tag group of militants whose core fighting force was estimated to consist of about 60,000 fighters, some of them shoeless, no air force, and limited mobility due to their adversary’s total air superiority and control of fuel.,Behind the scenes, a sprinkling of media reports and testimonies from Afghan soldiers and officials told a sobering story previewing the coming disaster, discussing the widespread disillusionment, demoralization and corruption centered around military and police structures based more on patronage, personal power and enrichment than competence and aptitude.,“There is no motivation for the army to fight for the corrupt government and corrupt politicians here,” Ahmad Wali Massoud, Afghanistan’s former envoy to the UK, told the Wall Street Journal on August 10, a few days before Kabul’s collapse.,“They are not fighting for [then-Afghan President Ashraf] Ghani. They haven’t even been fed properly. Why should they fight? For what? They are better off with the Taliban, which is why they are switching sides like that,” Massoud explained.,US Military Vehicles Falling Into Taliban Hands at Alarming Rate, Report Finds3 July 2021, 15:14 GMT,Ghani himself would end up fleeing the country as Kabul fell, with his entourage reportedly carrying so much money in suitcases from the state coffers that he had to leave some of it behind. Ghani has categorically dismissed these reports and denied allegations besmirching his good name.,John Sopko, the US inspector general for Afghanistan, warned Congress in March 2021 about the state of the Afghan’s military’s demoralization, admitting that “endemic corruption” was a threat, and that it was “fueling” the insurgency and giving the Taliban the means to gain public support.,Another problem, according to a May 2021 report by the Associated Press, was lack of professionalism. Attiqullah Amarkhiel, a former Afghan Army major general, told the news agency that while the Moscow-allied Afghan Army of 1989 consisted of about 150,000 high school educated troops. By contrast, he said, the NATO-trained crack troops of the Western-backed Afghan government had just six-to-eight weeks of basic training, with most recruits uneducated and/or allied to warlords.,“Then we had quality. Today we have quantity,” Amarkhiel said.,Blitzkrieg,This demoralization and corruption, combined with what The Intelligencer characterized as an institutionally built-in deep overdependence on US coalition support, culminated in the events of early-mid-August 2021.,By mid-July of that year, the Taliban was able to take advantage of coalition forces’ withdrawal by establishing control over large swathes of the Afghan countryside. However, no major cities and none of the country’s 34 provincial capitals were under the group’s control at the time. Throughout its two-decade insurgency campaign, the Taliban only launched one major strategic offensive against a government-controlled city – striking Kandahar in May 2011 before retreating back into the countryside.,Fast forward a decade, and the militant group would finally cast off their inhibitions about offensives cities.,On August 6, the militants captured Zaranj, capital of the southern province of Nimruz near the border with Iran, in a lightning attack, with government forces putting up light resistance and local bureaucrats fleeing the city.,A day later, the militants captured Sheberghan, capital of Jawzjan province, after heavy fighting. On August 8, Sar-e-Pul, Kunduz and Taluqan, three provincial capitals in the north of the country, fell, followed by Aybak in the northern Samangan province on August 9.,August 10 witnessed the collapse of Farah in the west and Pul-e-Khumri in Afghanistan’s center. A day later, Faizabad, capital of the northeastern province of Badakhshan also fell.,Animation showing Taliban's inexorable march towards Kabul. “The problem with the army was not lack of training or weapons. The most important thing in war is politics”Read @AmyKazmin @KatrinaManson and @b_parkyn's story on why the Afghan army foldedhttps://t.co/bjjJdPp15J pic.twitter.com/Ll6JrHQWLH— Steven Bernard (@sdbernard) August 15, 2021,August 12-13 would become the darkest days for the Afghan army and government up to that point, with the cities of Ghazni, Herat, Kandahar, Lashkar Gah, Qala-e-Naw, Feruz Koh, Pul-e-Alam, Terenkot and Qalat falling to the Taliban in the space of 48 hours. On August 14, the strategic northern city of Mazar-i-Sharif fell.,Finally, on August 15, 2021, Kabul and the eastern city of Jalalabad collapsed – falling, awkwardly, while tens of thousands of coalition troops, contractors, diplomats, Afghan puppet administration assistance and Western intelligence agents were still in the country.,© AP Photo / Rahmat GulA U.S. Chinook helicopter flies over the city of Kabul, Afghanistan, Sunday, Aug. 15, 2021. Taliban fighters entered the outskirts of the Afghan capital on Sunday, further tightening their grip on the country as panicked workers fled government offices and helicopters landed at the U.S. Embassy.A U.S. Chinook helicopter flies over the city of Kabul, Afghanistan, Sunday, Aug. 15, 2021. Taliban fighters entered the outskirts of the Afghan capital on Sunday, further tightening their grip on the country as panicked workers fled government offices and helicopters landed at the U.S. Embassy.© AP Photo / Rahmat Gul,In a post-op analysis of the events, General Yasin Zia, the former chief of staff of the Afghan army, estimated that some 4,000 security forces troops were killed, and 1,000 more gone missing, in the deadly weeks between July 1 and August 15, 2021 – with that figure representing about one half of the average of 8,000 Afghan security personnel killed each year over the previous five years.,Zia estimated that in total, some 92,000 members of the Afghan security forces died in the line of duty since 2001. Up to 100,000 Afghan civilians, tens of thousands of Taliban fighters, over 3,500 US and coalition troops, and 4,000+ Western mercenaries also perished.,* An organization under UN sanctions for terrorist activities.。与韩国女足一战，中国女足又是在先失球的情况下扳平比分，主教练水庆霞对此有清醒认识。
三 | “韩国队在战术攻击线和侵略性方面做得比较好，我们适应有些慢，我们要提高的地方还有很多。”赛后接受采访时水庆霞说，“可喜的是我们在落后时没有放弃，也有更多的年轻队员得到了锻炼。” 过去的两场比赛，多位年轻球员接受考验，甚至面对韩国女足的“复仇之战”，肖裕仪、王霜、唐佳丽等绝对主力球员仍然只是在下半场陆续登场，汪琳琳、张琳艳、万佳瑶3名00后继续首发，中国女足练兵的意图再明显不过——未能再次战胜韩国队并非遗憾，即便中日对决的结果也不会对球队产生过多影响，毕竟年轻球员需要国际A级赛事的磨练，而年轻队员的发挥，也让教练组感到满意：中韩之战汪琳琳防守到位并在角球战术中压至对方门前扳平比分，她和王晓雪的中卫组合，正逐渐获得更多信任。今后两年，中国女足面临世界杯和奥运会预选赛两大比赛任务，以现有实战能力想在这两大赛事中有所作为（世界大赛前8名为参赛目标）难度极大，而为更长久持续性发展考虑，中国女足也要尽快完成新老更替，巩固亚洲第一集团地位。
四 | 2023年女足世界杯在澳大利亚和新西兰举行，这是首届有32支球队参加的女足世界杯赛（截至记者发稿，已有包括中国女足在内的12支球队获得资格），对于中国女足而言，“扩军”意味着风险增加：以往小组出线便等同于晋级8强，扩军后小组出线只是晋级16强，尚需通过1轮淘汰赛才进入8强行列。从目前正在进行的女足欧洲杯赛和中北美女足金杯赛不难看出，得益于欧足联近年不遗余力的大力推广，世界女足运动仍然处于快速发展阶段。以女足欧洲杯为例，瑞典、德国、法国和东道主英格兰队杀入4强，半决赛将在北京时间7月27日与7月28日举行，4强球队整体力量、速度、攻防节奏更加趋向男子化，甚至身体对抗的强硬程度也让球迷对女足运动有了新的认知——欧足联提供的数据显示，本届女足欧洲杯已经售出的门票超过14万张，即将于8月1日在温布利大球场举行的决赛，门票售出超过5万张。在世界女足运动的专业程度和商业价值不断提升的时代，中国女足自然无法只靠闭门苦练实现《中国足球改革发展总体方案》中“女足重返世界一流强队行列”的战略目标，而衡量差距、找准定位的最好平台，便是2023年女足世界杯和2024年巴黎奥运会预选赛。2024年巴黎奥运会亚洲女足球队只有2张门票（2020东京奥运会东道主日本女足未参加亚洲区预选赛），届时中国女足、日本女足、韩国女足、澳大利亚女足及解禁的朝鲜女足等5支实力相当的球队将展开艰苦程度超乎想象的争斗——东京奥运会中国女足铩羽而归，今年亚洲杯夺冠但半决赛和决赛均在落后局面下完成逆转，倘想在世界杯赛闯进8强、在巴黎奥运会亚洲区预选赛中突出重围，除依靠强大的意志力完成坚守之外，技战术层面的实质性提升必不可少。这是中国女足极度看重东亚锦标赛结束之后美国拉练的原因所在。按照中国女足的世界杯备战计划，7月28日全队由日赴美进行为期1个月的高强度拉练，届时在欧洲、美国俱乐部效力的沈梦雨、沈梦露、赵瑜洁等海外球员将与球队会合，共同完成约10场与职业联盟球队的对抗赛——对年轻球员的提拔、对阵容的打磨以及对技战术打法的完善，是中国女足在强大意志力背后必须完成的实力升级。
五 | 值得一提的是，原定于2022年9月在杭州举行的第19届亚运会确定延期至2023年9月23日开幕，中国女足在明年7月举行的世界杯前不再有通过正式大赛锤炼球队的机会，而从本届东亚锦标赛开始这一年的储备，就是中国女足征战世界杯赛的“家底”。
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