

A | China and India’s oil, coal and gas purchases pumped some $24 billion in revenue into Russia’s coffers between March and May, nearly doubling the $13 billion the Asian giants spent during the same period in 2021, China Customs and India Trade Ministry data has shown.,The People’s Republic accounted for over 78 percent of the revenue - $18.9 billion. India, for its part, bought $5.1 billion in Russian energy – quintupling purchases it made a year ago by taking advantage of discounts on crude made as Moscow maneuvered to shift supplies away from the European and US markets.,Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), predicted that the Asian giants aren’t likely to stop their Russian energy binge anytime soon amid rising energy prices, and the West’s politicized decision to ban Russian crude oil and coal, and to limit gas imports.,EXCLUSIVE: New Delhi Does Not Support Attempts to Isolate Russia, Says Russian Ambassador to IndiaYesterday, 10:29 GMT,CREA figures indicate that China overtook Germany in the first 100 days after the escalation of the Ukraine crisis in February, but that the European market still accounted for a majority of top ten importer nations during this period.,China was the biggest importer of Russian energy in the first 100 days after the invasion, according to @CREACleanAir, and India's rise this year has been dramatic. Still, Europe as a bloc has made up the bulk of Russia's energy sales https://t.co/O7rTG4iI0p pic.twitter.com/rVuXsPv1nU— Dan Murtaugh (@danmurtaugh) July 6, 2022,Combined with Russian discounts, the possibility of ruble-yuan payments (and a similar ruble-rupee scheme currently being finalized), the BRICS nations have enjoyed a dramatic ramping up of the type of ‘win-win’ cooperation consistently talked about by Chinese officials, with Moscow ‘winning’ new markets, and Beijing and Delhi a cheap and dependable source of energy.,Iran Asks to Join BRICS27 June, 17:19 GMT,Sanctions Rebound,The United States banned the import of most (but not all) Russian energy in March, with the European Union following suit in the months to follow by banning Russian coal and fertilizers (which is an energy-intensive sector), promising to “phase out” Russian oil, and searching for alternatives to Russian natural gas.,While these measures were meant to “punish” Russia for its military operation in Ukraine, their impact so far has been to send already high energy prices and inflation soaring, and sparking fears of a steep recession.,Germany, the European industrial giant accounting for more than a quarter of the EU’s GDP, has been hit hard by the self-inflicted dual calamities of inflation and spiking energy costs. On Sunday, German Trade Union Confederation chairwoman Yasmin Fahimi warned that “entire branches” of the country’s industry, including aluminum, glass and the chemical sectors, are at risk of “collapsing permanently” thanks to the gas shortages. Germany depended on Russia for 40 percent of its gas and a quarter of its oil before the escalation of the Ukraine crisis.,No Plan C: Europe Facing Trouble as Norway's Oil, Gas Production DecliningYesterday, 15:27 GMT,Even the US, where Russian crude oil accounted for just one percent of total consumption in 2021, has been affected by the Biden administration’s energy ban, with gasoline prices setting records and sending shockwaves of price hikes reverberating on all other sectors of the economy dependent on road transport.,US and EU officials have reacted with general indifference to ordinary citizens’ economic distress, with President Biden blaming Russia and calling inflation and the gas price jump “Putin’s price hike,” while in Brussels, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has recommended that people simply ‘turn down the thermostat a couple degrees’ to compensate for lost Russian energy. On Monday, EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy Josep Borrell admitted that the transition away from Russian gas and oil is creating “serious difficulties” for members’ economies, but stressed that “this is the price which we must pay to defend our democracies and international law.”。

B | 在全球NAND闪存市场上,韩国三星电子和SK海力士目前以35.5%和18%的市场份额占据第一和第三的位置,但中国长江存储以成为苹果供应商为契机,将正式开始追击韩国企业。

C |

D | 中国市场占据韩国半导体总出口的60%。

E | 8月份韩国对华半导体出口比1年前下滑3.4%,这也导致韩国自2020年6月以来连续26个月增长的半导体出口增长态势戛然而止。《韩民族新闻》报道称,全球通货膨胀导致需求萎缩,半导体价格下降,再加上美国增加了半导体设备或软件等对中国出口限制,韩国半导体产业的不确定性正在增大。甚至有人预测,第四季度半导体价格有可能崩溃。在这种情况下,美国对中国的半导体相关出口限制对韩国企业来说更是危机因素。某韩国半导体企业相关人士表示,“在产品市场价格普遍下降的基础上,美国的半导体政策还有待观望,韩国企业认为调整投资或雇佣的必要性增大,但是目前无法制定出明确的变革路线与计划。”韩国产业研究院研究委员金良彭认为,“随着半导体供应过剩、全球需求减少及库存增加,价格下降、中国技术快速追赶、美中技术竞争加剧等风险同时发生,韩国半导体产业的不确定性正在加重。”面临三大问题一项行业调查显示,大部分半导体专家认为,韩国半导体产业处于危机状态。韩国商工会议所最近以30名半导体专家为对象实施的“韩国半导体产业专家调查”显示,认为“危机初显”的专家占56.7%,认为“危机之中”的为20.0%,60%以上的专家预测危机“至少持续至后年”。韩国西江大学电子工学教授范镇旭表示,“如果说过去半导体产业的动荡主要源于暂时性的外部环境恶化和半导体周期,那么此次局面则是不知何时结束的强国间的供应链竞争,以及中国的技术追击,业界的危机感和不安感比任何时候都强。”面对韩国近期越发明显的“芯焦虑”,黑龙江社会科学院东北亚研究所研究员、东北亚战略研究院首席专家笪志刚在接受《环球时报》记者采访时表示,韩国半导体产业的主要出口国是中国,受限于美国对芯片产业的政策钳制,韩国对华出口量会受到严重影响,韩国国内的产能暂时缺乏承接市场,这使得韩国国内焦虑不已。其实韩国应该正视一个事实,即随着中国经济和科技的发展,半导体产业链不断完善,芯片自主研发能力的加强,中国半导体的市场占有份额未来还会不断扩大。辽宁社会科学院朝鲜韩国研究中心首席研究员吕超告诉《环球时报》记者,韩国的芯片多服务于高尖端产品,中国的芯片则集中于中低端产品,因此,中国长期以来是韩国的主要芯片进口国,韩国的贸易多年来也是顺差。不过,近年来,中国在芯片投入了大量的人力物力,芯片发展迅速,在高尖端芯片领域进步飞速,市场竞争力也不断提升。吕超认为,韩国当下的“芯焦虑”主要是因为韩国半导体供应链不完整、国内市场容量小以及过于依赖海外订单三大问题。“韩国的芯片产品在对外贸易中占比非常大,当国际半导体市场出现供需波动,韩国首当其冲。尤其是半导体供应链,一旦发生问题,韩国的芯片产业受到的冲击非常大。”“韩国半导体原材料对中国依赖比例越来越高”,韩国纽西斯通讯社12日报道称,在美国越来越明显地将中国排除出国际半导体供应链之际,韩国半导体关键原材料对中国的依赖正在增加。

F | 努力平衡中美因素韩国关税厅(海关)12日发布的统计数字显示,今年1-7月用于半导体制造的氟化氢进口额为6516.8万美元,其中78.1%从中国进口。2019年中国产氟化氢占韩国总进口比例为50%,但去年猛增至70.1%。近年,韩国与日本因为强制劳工判决问题发生贸易争端后,韩国一直试图提高氟化氢本土化生产比例,因此有观点认为,半导体关键原材对华依赖度过高“可能也会产生大问题”。作为半导体生产过程中不可或缺的氖气,韩国从中国进口也在猛增。今年韩国氖气总进口额达4.8亿美元,中国产品占比45.0%。今年韩国从中国进口氖气的金额比去年猛增1594.7%,特别是每公斤氖气的价格已经从去年的每公斤216美元涨到今年的2553美元,涨幅超过十倍。7月份氖气的平均价格突破了每公斤 3221 美元的历史新高。

G | 不仅如此,韩国对外经济政策研究院发布的数据显示,韩国半导体生产的关键原料镓和钨的96%和84%要从中国进口。有分析认为,韩国对华半导体关键原材料的进口短期内难以大幅减少。

H | “美国旨在吸引全球投资北美产能的《半导体支援法》效果有限,韩国半导体会是否会被泼冷水?”韩国《先驱经济》12日的报道称,最近美国高盛首席经济学家领衔的研究团队分析认为,美国《半导体支援法》不足以解决过去几年的半导体供应链问题。韩国主要半导体企业正期待从美国《半导体支援法》受惠而加大对美投资。然而,如果考虑美国当地半导体工厂的投资成本和运行成本,有业内人士表示,从半导体制造公司的角度来看,很难从《半导体支援法》立即获得较大收益。

I | 因此,韩国不能将发展半导体产业的未来寄托在美国身上。面对美国极力拉拢韩国加入的“芯片四方联盟”,韩国商工会议所近期的一项调查显示,36.6%的受访者认为其对韩国影响积极,46.7%的受访者则持负面看法。
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